What Is Net Migration?
Net migration measures the balance between people moving into the UK and people leaving the UK in a given year. It is calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) using visa data, passenger surveys, and administrative records. A net migration figure of 764,000 means that, in the year ending June 2023, 764,000 more people settled in the UK than left it permanently.
Net migration comprises two main flows: EU citizens (until Brexit) and non-EU citizens (now all international migrants post-2021). It includes students, workers, family reunification, and asylum seekers. The composition of migration is important: the term "net migration" encompasses vastly different categories of people, but politically it is often debated as if it were monolithic.
The Blair and Brown Era: No Target (1997–2010)
Tony Blair's government did not set an explicit target for net migration. The approach was pragmatic: manage migration in the national interest but avoid inflammatory political positioning. Net migration during the Blair-Brown years was modest by later standards, typically between 150,000 and 250,000 annually. EU enlargement in 2004 caused a temporary spike when the government unexpectedly allowed free movement from Eastern European states without restrictions (other EU countries imposed transition controls). But overall, migration was not a central political battleground.
The Cameron Era: "Tens of Thousands" Pledge and Failure (2010–2016)
David Cameron made net migration a signature Conservative policy. In 2010, he pledged to reduce net migration to "tens of thousands" — a specific political target, with the implicit meaning of below 100,000 per year. This pledge was repeated constantly: it became the three-word mantra of the Cameron government.
What actually happened: net migration rose during Cameron's tenure. It peaked at 330,000 in 2015. The government tried various measures: imposing visa fees, stricter student visa rules, points-based immigration system. None of these brought migration down to "tens of thousands." By the end of Cameron's tenure, net migration was at 180,000, which was still vastly above the target. The pledge was broken. Cameron left office having fundamentally failed to deliver on his core promise. The political consequence was significant: immigration became a rallying issue for the Leave campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum, with voters angry that Cameron's specific target had not been met.
The May Era: The Inherited Problem (2016–2019)
Theresa May inherited Cameron's failed pledge. She initially doubled down on the "tens of thousands" target, then quietly dropped it in 2017 as politically untenable. Net migration during May's tenure was high — averaging 220,000 to 280,000 annually. The government introduced the Immigration Bill and tightened some visa routes, but migration remained stubbornly above the "tens of thousands" target. May's government also failed to deliver on the pledge inherited from Cameron.
The Johnson Era: Post-Brexit and the Great Reversal (2019–2022)
Boris Johnson campaigned on the slogan "Take back control" of immigration. A key argument of the Leave campaign was that EU freedom of movement was driving immigration and that leaving the EU would allow the UK to control its borders. Johnson promised that after Brexit, net migration would fall naturally as EU citizens would no longer have automatic rights to live in the UK.
The exact opposite occurred. EU migration fell sharply post-Brexit, but non-EU migration surged. UK employers, facing labour shortages in hospitality, agriculture, care, and health, lobbied for expanded visa routes. The government, facing staff shortages in the NHS and social care, expanded visa categories for healthcare workers and care workers. Student visas were loosened to help universities hit recruitment targets. By 2022, net migration reached 504,000 — the highest figure in a decade and vastly above "tens of thousands." The promise to "take back control" and reduce migration through Brexit had failed. Rather than falling, net migration rose to record levels.
The Sunak Era: Record High and Another Broken Pledge (2022–2024)
Rishi Sunak inherited Johnson's migration surge. In his campaign to become PM, Sunak pledged to "stop the boats" (illegal channel crossings) and to reduce net migration. His government pursued a Rwanda asylum scheme and introduced the Illegal Migration Bill, which aimed to deter small boat crossings by threatening deportation to third countries for asylum seekers who arrived via "illegal" routes.
What happened: net migration hit an all-time record of 764,000 in the year ending June 2023. This was the highest figure in ONS history. The Rwanda scheme faced legal challenges and deployed very few asylum seekers. Channel crossings initially fell but then resumed. Legal migration continued to surge — visas for care workers, Hong Kong nationals under BN(O) status, and post-study workers all contributed to record inflows.
By the time Sunak left office in July 2024, net migration was still estimated at 700,000+. His pledge to reduce net migration had been comprehensively broken. In fact, net migration had risen on his watch. Like Cameron's "tens of thousands" pledge a decade earlier, Sunak's migration reduction target was unfulfilled.
The Starmer Era: Restricting Care Worker Visas (2024–Present)
Keir Starmer took office in July 2024 with net migration at record levels. Labour's approach has been different from Conservative strategy: rather than adopting a specific numerical target, Labour focused on restricting specific visa categories. The government announced restrictions on care workers bringing dependents (reducing their visa entitlements). It also tightened the salary threshold for skilled worker visas, making it harder for employers to hire from abroad in lower-wage sectors.
As of early 2026, ONS provisional data for the year ending June 2025 estimates net migration at approximately 204,000 — a dramatic decline from the 764,000 peak under Sunak. The year ending June 2024 saw net migration at around 685,000, but the sharp fall since then reflects tighter visa rules, restrictions on care workers bringing dependents, and higher salary thresholds for skilled worker visas. While the 204,000 figure remains above the "tens of thousands" target that no PM has ever met, it represents the largest year-on-year fall in net migration in modern British history. Whether further restrictions will materialize, and whether net migration can be sustained at this level without damaging economic sectors dependent on migration (care, health, hospitality), remains politically contested.