The Record
Tony Blair entered No. 10 in May 1997 with a 179-seat majority, the largest Labour victory in history. Over the next decade, he won two further elections with large majorities. His government promised "Education, Education, Education," transformed public services through unprecedented investment, introduced constitutional devolution, and created the foundations of New Labour. Yet it is Iraq that history will remember.
Blair's tenure was the longest of any Labour Prime Minister—10 years of continuous office, during which the UK economy grew steadily, unemployment fell, and investment in schools and hospitals reached record levels. His three election victories demonstrated sustained public confidence. Yet by the time he left office, the Iraq War had poisoned public trust, and by the time the Chilcot Report was published in 2016, the verdict was damning: the war was avoidable, the intelligence was wrong, and hundreds of thousands died.
Iraq War: The Defining Failure
In September 2002, the UK government published an intelligence dossier claiming that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction deployable within 45 minutes. The claim was wrong. No such weapons were found. The intelligence was exaggerated—later inquiries (Hutton, Chilcot) documented how the dossier had been "sexed up" to make the case for war more persuasive.
The war began in March 2003. Over the following decade, 179 British military personnel were killed. Estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths range from 150,000 to over 600,000 depending on methodology. The conflict destabilized the region, contributed to the rise of ISIS, and created a power vacuum that persists today.
Blair has maintained that the decision was right, even after Chilcot concluded it was avoidable. He argues that removing Saddam was justified. However, even supporters acknowledge that the case for war was built on faulty intelligence, that the aftermath was catastrophically mismanaged, and that the human cost was immense. This single decision casts a shadow over his entire premiership.
Education, Education, Education: Real Progress
Blair's signature pledge was a focus on education. GCSE pass rates rose significantly under his tenure. The proportion of students achieving grade C or above in core subjects increased year on year. SATs results in primary schools improved. Universities expanded, and the Academies programme—allowing schools to operate outside local authority control—was launched as a tool for raising standards in failing schools.
However, Blair also introduced tuition fees in 1998, breaking a 1997 manifesto promise to abolish them. Fees were initially set at £1,000 per year, rising to £3,000 in 2004. This decision created a precedent that subsequent governments would build upon, eventually leading to fees of £9,000 under the Cameron-Clegg coalition.
NHS Transformation & Waiting Lists
Blair inherited a creaking NHS with waiting lists stretching to months for routine surgery. His government invested heavily—NHS funding roughly doubled in real terms over his tenure. Waiting lists fell sharply. The 18-week referral-to-treatment target was introduced and largely met. A&E waiting times improved. However, the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) contracts signed during this era became controversial. These long-term contracts committed the NHS to decades of private-sector debt repayment, saddling trusts with crippling costs that persist today.
Crime & Civil Liberties: ASBOs & Surveillance
Blair introduced Anti-Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs) as a tool for tackling low-level crime and disorder. Crime did fall significantly during his tenure, though this trend was visible across the Western world. However, civil liberties groups raised concerns about the expansion of surveillance, the introduction of ID cards (though these were later abandoned), and the erosion of historical liberties. Blair also introduced over 1,000 new criminal offences—more than any previous government.
Constitutional Devolution: Scottish Parliament & Welsh Assembly
One of Blair's genuine constitutional achievements was the delivery of devolution. In 1997, referendums approved the establishment of a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly. These bodies began sitting in 1999 and have become permanent features of UK governance. This was a manifesto commitment delivered and represented a significant constitutional change.
Fox Hunting Ban & House of Lords Reform
The Hunting Act 2004 banned fox hunting with dogs—a long-standing Labour commitment. The House of Lords opposed it repeatedly, but the Parliament Acts allowed the government to override their rejection. However, Blair's broader House of Lords reform agenda stalled. The upper chamber remained largely unreformed, and many hereditary peers retained their seats.
The Euro & Economic Stability
Blair and his Chancellor Gordon Brown set five economic tests for UK entry into the European single currency. None were met. The UK never joined the Euro, and Blair publicly committed to keeping Britain out unless the tests were satisfied. This pledge held throughout his tenure. However, the financial stability he (and Brown) claimed to have delivered was exposed as fragile when the 2008 crisis hit immediately after Blair left office.