Five Pledges: The Mixed Record
When Rishi Sunak addressed the Conservative Party conference in January 2023, he outlined a clear framework for his premiership: "I've set out a plan with five priorities. If I achieve them, you will know that your government has delivered." The five pledges were specific, measurable, and repeated across government communications: halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce NHS backlogs, stop the boats, and cut debt as a percentage of GDP.
By the time Sunak called the general election in May 2024 and led the Conservative Party to its worst-ever defeat, he had achieved one of those five pledges. On the other four, outcomes ranged from technically mixed to unambiguous failures.
Inflation: The Bank of England's Success, Not Sunak's Policy
Inflation did fall—from 10.7% in November 2022 to 4.6% by the end of 2023—meeting Sunak's pledge to halve it. However, the primary drivers were global energy price falls and aggressive Bank of England interest rate rises under Andrew Bailey's leadership, not direct government policy. The energy price cap mechanism, introduced by the previous government, also played a role. Sunak could claim the pledge was technically met, but it would be misleading to attribute this success primarily to his economic stewardship.
Economic Growth: Recession Instead
The UK economy contracted in Q4 2023, entering recession. GDP growth across 2023 was 0.5%, the weakest of any G7 nation. By July 2024 when Sunak left office, growth remained anaemic. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast growth at around 1% for 2024, well below the pre-COVID trend and far from the recovery narrative Sunak's pledge suggested. The economy had not grown; it had stagnated and contracted.
NHS Waiting Lists: Record Highs, Not Reductions
The NHS waiting list for routine procedures hit 7.8 million under Sunak's tenure—a record high in the history of the health service. Rather than being reduced, waiting lists actually lengthened. The pledge to "reduce NHS backlogs" was not approached, let alone achieved. A&E waiting times worsened, ambulance response times increased, and diagnostic delays persisted.
Stopping the Boats: Record Crossings Instead
Sunak made "Stop the Boats" a central policy pledge, launching the Rwanda scheme as the flagship initiative. Yet small boat crossings reached record levels in 2023: 29,437 people crossed the Channel irregularly, more than in any previous year. By the time Sunak left office in July 2024, crossings had continued at elevated rates. The Rwanda scheme had not processed a single asylum case, rendering the central mechanism of the pledge non-functional.
Debt: Rising, Not Falling
Government debt as a percentage of GDP rose throughout Sunak's tenure. Despite public spending constraints and tax rises, debt increased from 100% to over 101% of GDP. Fiscal drag from frozen tax thresholds raised effective tax rates, yet the deficit remained stubborn. The pledge to cut debt as a percentage of GDP was not achieved; debt metrics worsened.
The Broader Context
Sunak inherited a deeply fractured Conservative Party from Liz Truss. His initial strategy was to stabilise the party and present a return to competence after the chaos of the previous two months. However, the cumulative damage from 14 years of Conservative governance—crumbling public services, stalled wages, and voter fatigue—proved insurmountable. His five pledges, intended as markers of success, became symbols of unmet promises. The 2024 general election verdict was decisive: a 412-seat Labour majority, the Conservatives' worst defeat in their modern history.